BRANSON'S ASSESSMENT and BRANSON'S MOTTO

"Space flight is hard, but worth it." - Sir Richard Branson                                                                                        https://www.cnet.com/news/branson-on-virgin-galactic-crash-space-is-hard-but-worth-it/

Branson was a passenger on board Virgin Galactic SpaceShip Two's flight to space (as defined in the USA*) on July 11, 2021 from Spaceport America in New Mexico, USA, thus becoming the first "paying" civilian to fly into space on a private vehicle, and winning the "billionaire space race" with Amazon's Jeff Bezos:                                         https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/07/01/branson-bezos-space-race/

"Screw it, let's do it"- Branson's motto: 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/07/09/richard-branson-virgin-galactic-space-dare-devil/

*The USA Federal Aviation Administration defines an altitude of 50 miles as the edge of space: while elsewhere, the von Kármán line (100 kilometers) is generally defined as the edge of space.

HILTZIK'S LAW

"A corollary to the scientific truism that 'nature abhors a vacuum' is that nature tends to fill the void with any garbage near at hand." ​

-Michael Hiltzik, Business Columnist, Los Angeles Times

in a column on June 3, 2021: https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-06-03/lab-leak-covid-origin

I PREDICT...

There's lots of buzz about the new rockumentary film The Sparks Brothers about the long-standing band (duo) Sparks.  

It brings to mind to remind everyone that one of their more popular songs in the United States is the official theme song of TOM GILL PREDICTS!

Oh, yes, I bought the 45 rpm vinyl single of this record almost as soon as it was released!

KUCHARSKI'S LAW

“There’s a saying in my field: ‘if you’ve seen one pandemic, you’ve seen . . . one pandemic.’ ”-  Adam Kucharski, professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and author of The Rules of Contagion

CROWELL'S EXPLANATION

"Texans are the best songwriters in the world, because Texans are the best liars in the world- and Texans admit they're liars."- Rodney Crowell, singer/songwriter, July 5, 2017

http://www.texasstandard.org/stories/rodney-crowell-says-i-do-belong-to-the-people-of-texas/

______________________________________________________________________

WALSH'S LAW

"We all get a little unwanted ketchup now and then."- Matt Walsh

(Although now, with a shortage of ketchup packets being reported in the United States, receiving ketchup could be a Good Thing!)

 http://themattwalshblog.com/2013/08/18/maybe-you-get-bad-customer-service-because-youre-a-bad-customer/

MUSICAL CONFUSION

I have an incredibly vivid childhood memory of being a little boy, and going to Macy's department store with my dad, who had taken me shopping for new clothes. As we were on our way to or from the boy's clothing department, we passed by the record section, and there was a big display of Simon and Garfunkel's new album which was on sale- I remember the album cover, and it had to have been "Bridge Over Troubled Water."

Being a kid, I didn't have much interest in the day's pop music, and neither did my dad, who was from a previous generation (his favourite was Nat King Cole). Papa patiently and carefully explained to me that they were two singers, the one on the bottom was named Simon, and the one on top was named Garfunkel, which is why they were called Simon and Garfunkel, and "why would parents ever name their kid Garfunkel? What a funny name to give your son!"

STEINMAN'S LAW

 “I’ve been called over the top,” songwriter Jim Steinman (who died on April 19th) once told the Washington Post. “How silly. If you don’t go over the top, you can’t see what’s on the other side.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/jim-steinman-dead/2021/04/21/2159f3a0-a211-11eb-a774-7b47ceb36ee8_story.html​

MONDALE'S LAW

 "If you are sure you understand everything that is going on, you are hopelessly confused."- Walter Mondale, former Vice-President of the USA, who died last week.

Just What Is Your Risk of Becoming Seriously Ill Or Dying From COVID, Even After You've Been Fully Vaccinated?

April 19, 2021- by Tom Gill

Reports started to come out last week, both from the CDC and in the news media, of “breakthrough infections,” referring to persons testing positive for COVID, or even being hospitalized or dying from the new coronavirus, even after having been fully vaccinated.  For example:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/14/health/breakthrough-infections-covid-vaccines-cdc/index.html

This may sound alarming at first: and, it goes to a question I’ve had for some time now, “just what is your risk of becoming seriously ill or dying from COVID even after you’ve been fully vaccinated?” The CDC report finally provided some data, and I ran the numbers to try to estimate my answer to that question.  The result?

Becoming fully vaccinated makes car crashes and the flu each at least ten times more dangerous than COVID.

You can stop here- or, if you’d like to see how I delved into the details to get to those numbers, and the fine print, keep reading.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From reliable data I have seen, at the time that 66 million persons in the USA had been fully vaccinated against COVID, there were 5,814 reports of “breakthrough infections”- people who got COVID anyway.  However, the vast majority of those cases were asymptomatic, and I’m going to not consider them further because, well, they were asymptomatic (and, besides, there were probably far more asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 in vaccinated persons who hadn’t gotten tested for whatever reason-  being asymptomatic, of course, they generally didn’t have a reason to be tested or know they were COVID-positive!).  Instead, I’m going to focus on people becoming seriously ill to the point of needing hospitalization, or dying, which are pretty standard benchmarks to allow apples-to-apples comparisons to other risks.  396 vaccinated persons were hospitalized, and 74 died: but, 133 of the hospitalized patients were hospitalized for symptoms not related to COVID and found to be positive while in the hospital, and 9 of the fatalities died of something unrelatable to COVID, so I’m discounting those.  That leaves 263 hospitalizations and 65 deaths out of 66 million persons vaccinated.  Thus, at this point (see “Fine Print”),:

·        Being fully vaccinated makes your chances of being hospitalized from COVID to 1 in 251,000.

·        Being fully vaccinated makes your chances of dying from COVID to 1 in a million (actually, one in a million and fifteen thousand).

How does this compare to your chances of being hospitalized or dying from other activities- let’s say, the flu, or from a motor vehicle crash (either as a driver, passenger, or pedestrian, because that’s how the road safety statistics are calculated)?

Let’s look first at comparing your risk to that of a vehicular crash.  The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration statistics for 2018, the most recent data I saw, were 118 fatalities per million persons per year in the USA.  Assuming (and making probably a higher-risk assumption) that the unfortunately afflicted vaccinated people were hospitalized or died one month after being fully immunized,  there would have been 649 vehicular fatalities within that time frame in that group of 66 million vaccinated persons (versus 65 COVID deaths).  Thus, at this point (see “Fine Print”):

·        After being vaccinated, you’re at least ten times more likely to die in a car crash than from COVID.

What about comparing hospitalizations for COVID-after-vaccination to car wrecks?   In the USA, you’re A LOT more likely to be hospitalized, rather than to die, as a result of a motor vehicle incident.  According to my interpretation of CDC data, a person in the United States has a 1 in 1,420 (704 per million) chance of being admitted to the hospital due to a motor vehicle related injury each year.  Again, assuming over a one month period, out of those 66 million vaccinated persons, 3874 persons would have been hospitalized due to car crashes.   Thus, at this point (see “Fine Print”):

·        After being vaccinated, you’re at least fifteen times more likely to be hospitalized from a car crash than from COVID.

Thus,

·        After being vaccinated, motor vehicles are at least ten to fifteen times more dangerous than COVID.

Now, let’s compare the risk of post-vaccination COVID to that of influenza, in a “typical” flu year.  Keep in mind that flu numbers are quite variable: in the months immediately before COVID became a pandemic in 2019-20, the influenza season was quite severe, while in 2020-21, the flu season was extraordinarily mild.  I’m going to use an average to high value for influenza, 49 hospitalizations per 100,000 persons per year in the USA, and as with the crash data, scale it for one month, assuming that on average the COVID patients experienced breakthrough infections one month after being immunized.  Applied to 66 million COVID-vaccinated persons, that results in 2695 persons who would have been expected to have been hospitalized from influenza while 263 were hospitalized with COVID. For influenza mortality, I estimated 11.78 influenza-related deaths per 100,000 persons in the USA per year, scaled to one month as per the other comparisons. This would result in 648 persons dying from the flu while 65 vaccinated persons died from COVID. 

Thus, at this point (see “Fine Print”):

·        After being vaccinated, you’re ten times more likely to be hospitalized or die from the flu than with COVID.  And, thus,

·        After being vaccinated, influenza is ten times more dangerous than COVID.

(So, interestingly enough, car crashes and the flu are about an equal morbidity and mortality risk these days in the USA!): And, all in all, these days, in the USA,

·        After being fully vaccinated, motor vehicles or the flu become about ten times more hazardous to you than COVID.

There are also hints (although definitely not certain) that there are few if any clear cases of persons with (post-vaccination) breakthrough infections that passed the coronavirus on to other persons- so, even if you do get COVID after being vaccinated, it’s probably a dead end for transmission, and you are apparently not as infectious to others.

How do these odds compare to proverbial risks, and where would the current post-vaccination COVID mortality rate rank in regards to other diseases?  Based on my calculations, at this point,

·        The bad news: You’re still more than fourteen times more likely to die from COVID after being vaccinated than to be struck by lightning, and more than 58 times more likely to become seriously ill with COVID after vaccination than to be struck by lightning.

·        The chance of death in the USA from COVID after being vaccinated is roughly the same as the chance of accidentally drowning, or dying from gallbladder disease.

·        After being vaccinated, you’re about five times as likely to be a homicide victim than to die from COVID, and about ten times more likely to die from a gunshot (for any reason) than from COVID.

·        After being vaccinated, COVID becomes about the 55^th leading cause of death in the USA, as opposed to the 3^rd leading cause of death before vaccination.

·        Your chances of being hospitalized for COVID after vaccination are allegedly about the same as your chances of being hospitalized for a fireworks injury, and lower than being admitted to the hospital for unstoppable hiccups or carbon monoxide poisoning.

The rate and numbers of hospital admission for COVID after vaccination are so low that I can’t easily find the data to see where it rates compared to other causes.

-        April 19, 2021: by Thomas E. Gill.

 

 

THE FINE PRINT

These risks and my calculations are extremely fluid and “fuzzy,” and the numbers are “moving targets” and “rough estimates,” for a lot of reasons.

·        These are quick, basic calculations, having to make many assumptions with multiple uncertainties, and given the fact that some of the actual numbers are unclear or unavailable.

·        The COVID breakthrough infection odds for the average American or population as a whole are almost certainly much better than I assumed, because those first 66 million persons vaccinated against COVID included a larger proportion of health care workers (whose jobs put them at greater risk of being exposed to infected people), as well as senior citizens and persons with other illnesses (who will be at greater risk of hospitalization or death if they catch the coronavirus).

·        It’s possible that each individual person, as a result of their unique immune system, may receive slightly more or less immunity to COVID from the vaccination(s) they receive- just like each of us may have a different immune response to being exposed to the SARS-CoV2 virus itself. The jabs may be more or less effective in different groups of people and individuals.  Likewise, individuals will vary in their susceptibility to influenza, vaccinated or not.

·        The risk of the flu is variable depending on which strain is circulating each year, whether or not you and those around you are vaccinated, and how effective the influenza vaccine is from year to year.  Even in the best years, the influenza vaccine is not as effective as the COVID-19 vaccines are now.  The motor vehicle fatality rate is more static from year to year- and there’s no vaccine against being hit by a car or truck. 

·        Your personal risk is modulated quite a bit by your own behaviour- even if vaccinated, are you being careful to not put yourself at greater risk of catching COVID or the flu anyway?  Are you a stay-at-home person mostly in a “bubble” or do you socialize a lot?  Do you work in an isolated office or interact with hundreds of customers?  Do you wear a mask during flu season? Would you have been working at home a lot even if the COVID pandemic didn’t happen, or during flu season?  Do you drive by yourself, ride in a crowded bus,  or walk down streets with busy traffic or isolated roads- and do you do so a lot, or a little?  Are you a defensive driver?  If you’re a passenger, do you wear your seat belts?  If you are a pedestrian, do you keep your eyes on traffic or do you jaywalk?   Even if all of that were equalized,  not matter your own personal behaviour, different cities and states have different rates of flu incidence and traffic injuries and deaths.

·        As more people get vaccinated against the novel coronavirus, the rate of transmission of the disease will decrease and COVID-19 will be occurring less extensively, tending to reduce your risk overall with time.

·        As time goes by, more variants of COVID will emerge, and some of them may be more effective at evading the vaccine, increasing the risk overall with time.

·        After a certain amount of time goes by, the effectiveness of the vaccine will start to diminish, increasing the risk of breakthrough infections.  How long will the mRNA vaccines be effective for?  Scientific studies show it is clearly at least six months: but immunologists and epidemiologists I’ve been following think it’s more likely to be years, maybe even many years.

·        Even things such as flu incidence and automobile-related fatalities were to some extent dependent on the COVID pandemic: as a result of lockdowns, economic slowdowns, masking and social distancing, the most recent flu season was almost nonexistent, and motor vehicle fatalities were down in most areas due to fewer people on the road commuting for much of the year (although I’ve seen statistics saying the rate of vehicular fatalities per mile traveled was way up, because people were more likely to speed and drive recklessly on the emptier roads).   When the pandemic eases, the economy opens up and people start going out, socializing, crowding together, commuting and traveling more, rates of transmissible diseases and motor vehicle injuries and fatalities may increase.

·        A lot more persons are sent to a hospital due to car crashes every year than admitted to a hospital: most are treated and released, and only 9.8% are admitted, according to data I accessed from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and the CDC.  Since the COVID breakthrough data were for hospital admissions, I used admissions for vehicular injuries as well.

·        Simonsen et al., 2000 (J Infect Dis. 181:831-837) estimated 49 hospitalizations per 100,000 persons for influenza in the USA per year, while Thompson et al. 2004 (JAMA 292(11):1333-1340) estimated 37 hospitalizations per 100,000 per year: these studies were based on different models and different time periods.  The CDC estimated 69 hospitalizations per 100,000 per year for the 2019-20 flu season.

·        For influenza mortality rates in the USA, I used the estimates of Quandelacy et al. 2014 (Amer J Epidemiol 179(2):156-167): other estimates may differ.

·        My estimates of COVID morbidity do not include the potential consequences of “long COVID.” While true, many people are also permanently disabled as a result of motor vehicle injuries, and influenza can also cause long-term side effects.

·        Estimates of the odds of being struck by lightning in the United States are derived from https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds

·        Death rates for various other causes are derived from: Ahmad and Anderson 2021 (JAMA,  doi:10.1001/jama.2021.5469): CBS News, “Death Index: Top 59 Ways Americans Die,” https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/death-index-top-50-ways-americans-die/6/ : Murphy et al. 2021 (National Vital Statistics Reports 69(13))

·        The rate and number of hospital admissions for COVID after vaccination is so low that I cannot easily find the data: I could find it in the National Inpatient Sample, but I’d have to pay to access it and might require some extra software.  The claim that 3000 people are hospitalized for fireworks injuries every year (in the USA? It’s not clear) has been made in several press releases findable online.   I found another claim online that 4000 people are hospitalized every year for hiccups (in the USA? It’s not clear).  I have no idea whether it is valid or not.  CDC data states that about 4000 persons are admitted to the hospital every year in the USA for carbon monoxide poisoning.

FRANSEN'S LAW OF FORECASTING

"you'll learn a lot more from your busted forecasts than you will from the ones you hit perfectly (and it's rare to fully hit a forecast perfectly)."

-Tanja Fransen

(Said in regards to weather forecasting- but, really, applies to any kind of forecasting)

a1b1's Law Of Science

“Nobody believes the results obtained/presented by a theorist/modeler except the theorist/modeler herself. Everybody believes the data obtained/ presented by an experimentalist except the experimentalist himself."

https://xykademiqz.com/2016/12/14/phd-defense-grumpiness/#comments

DEMING'S (DEMMING"S) RULE

"Deming's Rule" is an aphorism in industrial engineering and management, based on a principle promulgated by engineer and statistician W. Edwards Deming (1900- 1993).  His name is sometimes misspelled Demming, and the rule itself is sometimes given incorrectly, as I learned in an online discussion this week.

Basically, Deming's Rule can be stated as, "85% of a worker's effectiveness is determined by the system he/she works within, only 15% by the worker's own skill."  It is also often stated as, "85% of the problems/mistakes in the workplace are caused by the management and/or the physical infrastructure, and only 15% are the fault of the workers themselves." It is also sometimes reported as, "85% of faults lie with systems, processes, structures and practices of an organization, and 15% are due to operator/worker skill/error." 

Sometimes 95%/5% is quoted rather than 85%/15%.

OUGHTON'S RULE OF PREVENTION

 https://twitter.com/MatthewOughton/status/1370750670849110017

SEATON'S LAW

"It's never the product's fault.  Pencils don't misspell words, guns don't shoot people and the product isn't at fault."- Katy Jane Seaton, executive director of the High Plains Winegrowers Association

Excerpt from news story: "Seaton also grows cotton, like many wine grape growers in the High Plains. She says she does not believe the chemical itself is responsible — it's about the herbicide's applicators, she says, and the relationships that they have with their neighbors." 

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/08/21/638588456/west-texas-vineyards-blasted-by-herbicide-drift-from-nearby-cotton-fields

DILBERT'S SALARY THEOREM

"Dilbert's Salary Theorem," based on the cartoon character Dilbert by Scott Adams, states that "Engineers and scientists can never earn as much as executives and salespersons." 

The theorem is based on the following two well-known sayings: "knowledge is power," and "time is money." 

From physics,

Power = Work/Time

but since it is given,

Knowledge = Power 

Time = Money

therefore:

Knowledge = Work/Money

Solving for Money, thus

Money = Work/Knowledge

Therefore, as Knowledge approaches zero, Money approaches infinity, regardless of the amount of work done.

Thus: The less you know, the more you make.

DUQUETTE'S LAW AFTER DaVINCI, McCRAY'S VERSION, DUQUETTE'S RESPONSE, and LAWSON'S OBSERVATION

Duquette's Law: "...'Art is never finished, only abandoned. -- da Vinci.' Also goes for research papers." - Nic Duquette, on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/NicDuquette/status/1027942719086153728

McCray's Version: "(Research) papers are never finished, just abandoned."

https://twitter.com/Er1caD/status/1028065330676084742?s=20

Duquette's Resonse: "Everything is a remix. Da Vinci probably was quoting somebody else too."

https://twitter.com/NicDuquette/status/1028071606432583680?s=20

Lawson's Observation: "Research is art."

https://twitter.com/EdwardLawsonJr/status/1028088556819042305?s=20

CHEKHOV'S LAW

 “When a lot of remedies are suggested for a disease, that means it cannot be cured.” - Anton Chekhov

JORDAN'S DICHOTOMY

"Nothing makes you feel young like going to a trampoline park. 

Nothing makes you feel old again like the day after going to a trampoline park."

- Jason Jordan, on Twitter, 5/25/17

https://twitter.com/kc5knd/status/867798100123013120

THE UNIVERSAL LAWS OF BIRDING

 These have apparently been going around the Internet for some time.  They were shared on the El Paso Audubon Society web page by John Groves.

THE UNIVERSAL LAWS OF BIRDING

In the early days of the Internet, before various websites, NYSbirds, and the networking sites scattered across the World Wide Web, there were the CompuServe Forums. A group of birders “met” on the Birding Forum, where they discussed the burning birding issues of the day and developed what is now known as The Universal Laws of Birding. These laws have been scattered around the Internet, appearing in various guises, and have now been revised, modified for conciseness, or otherwise updated by one of the original creators and contributors.

THE SACRIFICIAL LAMB LAW. On a stake out for a rarity, the bird will only show up after the “sacrificial lamb” needs to use the restroom, get hot chocolate, or has to leave. The “lamb” should be spared the bad news, and instead be presented with a jar of mint jelly. (See YSHBH Constant)

THE SPITEFUL AVOIDANCE LAW. If you don’t see the bird within a certain amount of tries, it becomes insulted and deliberately avoids you from then on, becoming your “Nemesis Bird” or Oiseau de Malheur. (Arie Gilbert)

THE CASUAL INCANTATION LAW. This takes place by the offhand mentioning of a bird and then the bird appears. (Arie Gilbert)

THE COAST IS CLEAR LAW. The birds will only come out after you have begun to leave. Sometimes you can trick the birds into coming out by loudly announcing that you are leaving and starting to move in that direction. (Jim Frazier)

THE RARE BIRD ALERT RAZOR. Never assume the rare bird line has been updated, or that everyone going to see a bird will in turn post a message. Just because the bird has not been reported doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not still there. (Ann Johnson)

THE LAW OF IRONIC ABUNDANCE. You may look for a particular bird for 20 years without finding it, but once you do find it, they will be everywhere and robin-like in their numbers. (Carolyn Hoffman)

THE PHOTOGRAPHIC PARADOX. Your best photographic opportunities occur when you leave your camera behind. (Arie Gilbert)

THE LAW OF INDIRECT OBSERVATION. You will learn more about the variation in Herring Gulls in 30 minutes of looking for a Thayer’s Gull than you will in a lifetime of looking at Herring Gulls. ( Jim Bangma)

THE LAW OF AVIAN FIELD MARK MODESTY. Whenever you are without a field guide and cannot ID a bird, the field marks you think are important are not. When you do have a field guide, and there is an important field mark, the bird never lets you see it. (Carolyn Hoffman)

THE LAW OF PROPORTIONAL OBSERVABILITY. If there are two or more birds in a tree and one is a rarity, the only one you can’t see is the rarity. (Bill Elrick)

THE YSHBH CONSTANT. Upon arriving late at the site of a bird reported on the RBA and finding a group of birders already there you will be told “You Should Have Been Here xx minutes ago. The bird just flew.” (Joe DiCostanzo)

THE INVERSE DISTANCE WATERFOWL LAW. The rarer the duck or goose, the further from shore it will be. On an enclosed body of water, it will always be on the diametrically opposite shore from you and this shore will always be private land or otherwise inaccessible. (Joe DiCostanzo)

THE LUCK OF THE DISINTERESTED LAW. At any stakeout for a rare bird at which a large number of birders have assembled, one birder will usually have dragged along an uninterested, non-birding friend or relative. The non-birder almost inevitably will be the one who looks the other way or wanders off and finds the sought after bird. (Joe DiCostanzo)

THE YELLOWLEGS CONSTANT. If a Lesser Yellowlegs and a Greater Yellowlegs are next to each other, someone invariably comments: “There’s a good size comparison.” (Jim Frazier)

THE MATERNAL CONSTANT. Whenever a group of birders finds a cluster of new ducklings, gosling or any other cute and adorable group of young birds, you’ll always hear a chorus of “aaawwwwwhhhhhhhh.” (Jim Frazier)

THE LAW OF AUGMENTED RETURNS. AKA Eric’s Observation: Extremely rare birds are often initially misidentified as common birds, so few birders look at them twice, let alone once. Eventually, someone correctly identifies the bird, opening the flood gates to scores of birders coming to see it.( Eric Miller)

THE LESS IS MORE LAW. When birding in a group someone may stay behind because they are tired etc. Upon return of the group they are informed that most or more birds were seen right from that location.

THE METEOROLOGICAL PARADOX. Whenever the weather is unseasonably nice, the birds you are seeking are also enjoying the good weather. Elsewhere. (Ian Resnick)

THE PATAGONIA PICNIC TABLE EFFECT. The persistence of a rarity at any location leads to more and more rarities being discovered there because of the increased coverage by birders.   (Note by Tom Gill: This or variants thereof also applies to tornado chasing, stamp and coin collecting, etc.)

THE OUT OF TOWN LAW. Whenever you travel away from your local patch (usually on some exotic, expensive birding trip), the local Rare Bird Report has observation submissions - the entire time you are away - of State Firsts or Seconds, of any number of species. And they all take wing, never to be seen again, one day before your return. (Eileen Schwinn)   (Also applies to storm chasers: I've heard them lament that they drove 400 miles hoping to see a tornado, they don't, but while they were gone a photogenic twister spun up just minutes from home while they were gone.  The Less is More Law also applies to storm chasing, antique hunting, etc. in this sense.)

SCULLY'S MUSING

 Why not go out on a limb? Isn't that where the fruit is?"

-- Frank Scully, American journalist

PELTON'S STEPFATHER'S LAW

 "Always sell the thing that people want, to the people with the most money."- Adventurer Robert Young Pelton's stepfather, who was a hydrologist for the government of Saudi Arabia (who had too many  people looking for oil but a need for, and lack of people exploring for, water.)

HOGUE'S LAW

"When you flush a toilet, the loudest noise is the final gurgle."- John Hogue

Schuette's Law

"Congress is not the sole suppository of wisdom."-- U.S. Representative Bill Schuette of Michigan, running for the Senate, October 8, 1989

HEINLEIN'S ADAGE

 "The old adage 'the early bird gets the worm' just means the worm should have stayed in bed."- Attributed to author Robert Heinlein.

DUCHOVNY'S DENT DICTUM

 http://ew.com/article/2016/04/15/david-duchovny-book-bucky-dent-seth-meyers/

April  15, 2017- David Duchovny’s newest novel, Bucky F*ing Dent, takes its name from a 1978 playoff game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, in which the titular Yankees player devastated Red Sox fans with an unexpected home run. (The colorful epithet is his eternal punishment from angry New England residents.) That climactic game does show up in the book, but as Duchovny explained to Seth Meyers on Thursday, the name and event are more thematic touchstones for the novel’s story of a complicated father/son relationship.

“One of the characters says towards the end of the book, ‘It’s never Micky Mantle who kills you. Never Babe Ruth or Willie Mays. Never the guy you prepare for. It’s always the head cold that kills you. It’s Bucky F*ing Dent,'” Duchovny said. “It becomes like a eulogy for the losers in life, and the underdogs in a way. That’s kind of the underpinning of the whole book.”

KNOX'S OBSERVATION

"Where there's smoke, there's either fire *or* a big smoke machine." - John Knox

TYSON'S LAW

"Anyone can have a plan until they get punched in the face." -Mike Tyson

BRESLIN'S LAW

 "If you do not blow your own horn, there's no music." - Jimmy Breslin

RIITTERS' RULE

 "well-documented junk is still junk.’’- 

Kurt Riiters, "Creativity Abhors Prescription," 2011, doi:10.1007/s10980-011-9673-4

NISKER'S SUGGESTION

 "If you don't like the news, go out and make some of your own."-  Tag line of Wes "Scoop" Nisker, newsman for KSAN radio in San Francisco in the 1970s.

https://www.sfgate.com/style/article/A-liberal-Scoop-of-wit-and-sanity-3152235.php

TRUMP'S ADMONITION

"If it's not your (own) hair, don't run for office."- Donald Trump

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/394084-trump-tells-future-candidates-if-its-not-your-hair-dont-run-for

FUGATE'S LAW OF DISASTER RESPONSE

"If you show up (after a disaster) with too much stuff, there's going to be a hearing.  If you show up with not enough stuff, there's going to be a hearing, and you're going to be fired." - Craig Fugate, former FEMA administrator, on "Wx Geeks" on The Weather Channel, May 7, 2017.

GRANT'S LAW

"Progress happens one retirement at a time." - Believed to have first been formally published by Master Sergeant D.K. Grant, 21st Space Wing, in their Space Observer newspaper, March 9, 2001.

BROWN'S LAW

BROWN'S LAW: - "If you want to keep getting what you're getting, keep doing what you're doing." Attributed to motivational speaker Les Brown in 2001: may predate him.

ALEX'S LAW

 "There's no enemy quite like a former friend." - from a reply by someone named Alex to a blog post on May 13, 2017

PARCELLS' ADMONITION

"​Just because you can identify the problem, doesn't mean that you can fix it."- American football coach Bill Parcells

THE LAW OF WORK DURING COVID-19

"These days, we're not working from home.  We're living at work." - Overheard by Tom Gill during a six-hour-long Zoom meeting in September 2020.

GILL'S LAW OF WATER RESOURCES

With regards to most things in the Southwest USA, "mi casa es su casa." But in regards to water, "mi agua es... MI agua! You can't have it!" - overheard by Tom Gill in El Paso, Texas on September 6, 2016.

SUNAY'S LAW

 "If you are eating food that has the potential to stain your clothing, it is guaranteed to get on your clothes and stain your clothing!" - Sunay Palsole

Arellano's Law

"Blood is thicker than water, but it's not thicker than horchata." - Gustavo Arellano

Originally appeared in his column "Ask A Mexican," 8/3/2017: 
https://www.ocweekly.com/how-hard-is-it-to-be-a-hyphenated-mexican-8303069/

NASH'S LAW

 "A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of." - Ogden Nash

GROTHE'S LAW

"Never let a fool kiss you, or a kiss fool you." - Dr. Mardy Grothe, anthologist, the title of his 1999 book, a collection of chiasmus examples.

BARRY'S LAW

 "Never hang around with people who have access to both mixed drinks and dart-shooting weapons."- Humorist Dave Barry

GILL'S APPLICATION OF THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS TO RITCHIE'S RULE

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. 
Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime. 
Teach the entire village to fish, and soon there will be no fish left in the lake.
- Tom Gill, applying the "tragedy of the commons" concept to the well-known saying first known to have been written by Ann Ritchie in her novel Mrs. Dymond.

LAMOTT'S LAW

"Almost everything will work again if you unplug it for a few minutes... including you." - writer Anne Lamott.

ROOSEVELT'S LAW

"I don't care how much you know, until I know how much you care."- Attributed to Teddy Roosevelt

HARTFORD'S ADVICE

"Don't get famous (for) doing something you don't like doing." - Musician John Hartford

LEIBER'S LAW

"In good times, magicians are laughed at. They're a luxury of the spoiled wealthy few. But in bad times, people will sell their souls for magic cures and buy perpetual motion machines to power their war rockets."- Fritz Leiber, "Poor Superman," quoted by Paul McAuley​

MARIBEL'S MAXIM

"If you do what you always did, you will get what you always got."
- Maribel Martinez, February 13th, 2015.

DORNBUSCH'S LAW OF ECONOMICS

"In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could." - Economist Rudiger Dornbusch

THE FIRST LAW OF WEATHER TWITTER

"The quantity of nonsense increases with wind speed." - Overheard at a weather conference in 2018

GILL's 19TH LAW

Pipes at home leak and burst and start flooding five minutes after everyone has left for the day to go to work.  Pipes at the workplace burst and leak and start flooding five minutes after everyone has left for the day to go home.

BELL'S LAW

If truth were the order of the day, it would be our last day. 
- Radio talk show host Art Bell, 3/11/1999

HOPPER'S OBSERVATION

"The middle of 'Life' is 'If'."
-Attributed to Dennis Hopper.

KARL'S LAW

"Like my grandmother used to say, dog don't howl if he has a bone."
- Karl Schweda, in Paul McAuley's novel "Something Coming Through," last paragraph of Chapter 42.

DOUG GOTTLIEB'S LAW

"Things don't happen in a vacuum, and that's a good thing, because vacuums suck." - Doug Gottlieb, Fox Sports Radio, said on his show @GottliebShow on May 16, 2017. 

BOYD'S LAW

"Only people who know an awful lot know how little they know." - Anne Boyd*
*Source: https://twitter.com/theparsley/status/1027954053089832963

GARCIA'S FIRST LAW

"You ain't gonna learn what you don't wanna know." 
- Jerry Garcia

GILL'S 89TH LAW

"Cows may come and cows may go, but bull goes on forever." - Tom Gill, sometime in 2017.

LAW'S LAW

Experience is a hard teacher, because she gives the test first and the lesson afterward.  
-Vernon Law,  Major League Baseball pitcher

NELSON'S OBSERVATION

The early bird gets the worm, 

but the second mouse gets the cheese.

- Willie Nelson

DePAUL'S ADMONITION

"The past is another country, and there's no guarantee of cordial diplomatic relations."  
- Elizabeth DePaul, in Robert Charles Wilson's novel Last Year, p. 167.

McLEAN'S EXPLANATION

"A global pandemic is a reasonably satisfactory reason to expect a different level of productivity."- Craig McLean, Assistant Administrator of NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, in a memo to employees on 3/28/2020. [From a social media post by Leslie Hartten]

Life During Wartime- Pandemic Edition

For the last several weeks, for what should be obvious reasons, the song "Life During Wartime" by Talking Heads- what is widely considered an early New Wave/funk-rock classic- has been playing in my mind.

I've come up with my own new set of lyrics to it, to match our present crisis.  Submitted for your consideration.

Life During Wartime

Music and lyrics by David Byrne et al.: new lyrics by Tom Gill, 3/22/2020

Heard of a van that is loaded with facemasks,
Packed up and ready to go
Heard of some gravesites, out by the highway,
A place where nobody knows

The city’s quiet, the roads deserted,
I'm getting used to it now
Lived in a brownstone, lived in a ghetto,
I've heard they’ve all been locked down

This ain't no party, this ain't no nightclub,
This ain't no fooling around
Too close for dancing, or lovey dovey,
I’m social distancing now

They got some test kits, they swabbed my nostrils
Hope for an answer some day
I got exposed at a couple of places,
You better just stay away.

Down at the Costco, the trucks are loading,
the Charmin big mega roll
I sleep at my jobsite, I work remotely,
I might not ever leave home

This ain't no party, sure ain’t no spring break,
This ain't no fooling around
There ain’t no South By, or no March Madness,
Ain’t got no time for that now

Heard about Wuhan? Heard of that cruise ship?
How many cases today?
You oughta know not to open the window
Somebody sneeze on you there

I got some groceries, some sanitizer,
To last til April or May
But I ain't got no Netflix, ain’t got no Kindle,
Ain't got no X-box to play

Why stay in college? Why go to night school?
Gonna be all taught online
Can't tweet on Twitter, can't send no email,
I ain't got time for that now

State parks are roadblocked, trouble at trailheads,
Trying to keep away crowds
We’re jogging fire roads, we're jumping fencelines,
I know that that ain't allowed

We dress in PJs, we dress like hazmats,
Forego the suit and the tie
I’ve missed my haircuts, so many times now,
I don't know what I look like!

You make me shiver, I feel some fever,
I’d better self-quarantine
Don't get exhausted, is that you coughing?
You might have Covid-19

Bricked all my notebooks, what good’s my Chromebook?
They won't help me survive
My chest is tightening, getting pneumonia,
it tells me I’m still alive

KELLY'S BARREL OBSERVATION

"Empty barrels make the most noise."  
Ascribed for many years as a "Swedish proverb" or "Yiddish insult."  Used multiple times by White House Chief of Staff Gen. John Kelly, as in press briefing on 10/19/17 and in a statement made to Fox News on 9/12/2017.

POWELL'S ADVICE

"Tell me what you know.  Then tell me what you don't know. Then tell me what you think. Always distinguish which is which."- Colin Powell

SHATNER'S LAW

"There's only one problem flying by the seat of your pants.  Sometimes you end up naked." -William Shatner, in TV GUIDE , August 22, 2016

BOND'S LAW

"Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action."- James Bond, in GOLDFINGER.

BLOOM'S OBSERVATION

"The greatest invention of humans is peace. The concept of peace has never occurred to bacteria. It's never occurred to chimpanzees. But it has occurred to human beings."- Author Howard Bloom

KNOX'S OBSERVATION and STILLMAN'S ADDENDUM

"Spoiled fruit does not improve with age."- John Knox, Professor, University of Georgia.

But note:

"Spoiled fruit does not improve with age, but sometimes it can turn out to be the base of some powerful liquor."- Robert Stillman

LITTLEWOOD'S LAW VIA McRANEY

"So much happens to us on a daily basis, that we have a million experiences about every 35 days. The idea that something is a one-in-a-million experience means also that it's a once-a-month occurrence."

- David McRaney, author of the book "You Are Not So Smart."  Professor John Edensor Littlewood of Cambridge University decided to apply cold mathematical reasoning to the concept back in 1955.

He assumed that a miracle is a one-in-a-million event. He also surmised the average human will witness one event per second during the eight hours each day when they are fully "alert".

This mean you will witness a million events roughly every 35 days - and the law of averages says one of these will be "miraculous".

Yes, it's little more than a maths joke - and Littlewood did far more - and more important work - in his career until his death at 92 in 1977.

The volume in which its contained - a Mathematicians' Miscellany - is in fact a spritely little book uncovering the fun and occasional wisdom of life gleamed from studying maths at Trinity College, Cambridge.

ARCHER'S ADVICE

"Why put something off until tomorrow, when you can get away with not doing it at all?" - David Allen Archer, December 10, 2014