Thursday, December 6, 2018

THE FIRE NEXT TIME


The Fire Next Time: some thoughts on the recent wildfires in California, lessons learned and implications for infrastructure, disaster resilience, and land management.
-Opinion by Tom Gill

My research as a professor at UTEP doesn’t usually focus on smoke and flames, but something else in the sky: dust, and the hazards and disasters it has provoked, such as the Dust Bowl.  But as someone who spent decades living on the outskirts of San Francisco and Sacramento within range of (and often seeing the ominous smoke clouds from) wildfires, and seeing the smoky sunset over El Paso on the eleventh of November,  the massive and destructive blazes in California have been on my mind.

The sunset over El Paso and UTEP (near the center) on the evening of November 11th was a beautiful side effect of a horrible event: it was caused by smoke, injected high into the atmosphere by wildfires in Southern California and carried more than 1000 kilometers downwind to the Borderland.   Photo from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Ranger Peak Webcam.

Persons in California and other vulnerable states may now need to prepare for brownouts- the electricity being turned off deliberately by the power company during dry, windy weather conditions- as a preventative measure to avoid wildfire disasters of the kind that have been seen there this year.  The evidence is accumulating that electrical line sparks or other infrastructure malfunctions may have started the killer Camp fire that destroyed the town of Paradise north of Sacramento, as well as several of the huge and tragic fires in California’s Wine Country last year. San Diego's electrical utility has already been shutting down power in some areas when extreme fire danger conditions exist for the past several years, and the two top electrical providers in California (Pacific Gas & Electric aka PG&E, and Southern California Edison) have made it an option starting this year.  PG&E’s stock plunged when investors realized the company could be liable for the fire.
But when PG&E actually preventatively shut down power for the first time in early November shortly before the Camp fire broke out, news and social media reports indicate there was a strong pushback from people who had their power cut far away from where the actual wind and danger was, in areas with light winds and without the dry brush, apparently because of the way the grid is put together and the inability to deliberately shut off small enough sections of it.  Businesses with perishable products that could spoil, as well as persons with health conditions that required powered ventilators, monitors or other life-saving devices, understandably complained when their power was cut. It is reminiscent of the criticism that the National Weather Service received when they could only issue severe weather warnings for entire counties or large areas, including areas that were not threatened by the adverse conditions- and the flak weather forecasters in El Paso have received, for example, when they predicted an ice storm that didn't materialize. A recent article in the San Jose Mercury News (1) hints that this pushback from when PG&E did shut off the power as a precaution, may have dissuaded them from doing that exact thing again- exactly where and when the Camp fire apocalypse got started.  Will there be a race to find the technologies to better shut down vulnerable areas of the grid while leaving others powered up?
And could shutting down electrical transmission or distribution lines actually impede fire prevention and response?  As a colleague pointed out to me, a brownout could have the effect of stopping the communication of vital warnings of wildfire hazard or updates on the spread of an actual fire to residents in the (potential) path of the flames, and cut power to first responders, shelter and evacuation facilities, medical centers, and other portions of the infrastructure critical to disaster preparation and response.
It's not just the electrical grid that residents of blaze-prone areas have to worry about during fire season. Having lived much of my life in California wildfire country, even something as seemingly minor as a fenderbender accident or car or motorcycle having a flat tire on a rural road, or someone pulling over to the side of the road to text or take a drowsy-driver nap, or a passing train, could and has sparked huge wildfires, including some in the last year or two. A century ago, the deadliest fire in USA history (which the Camp fire has been compared to) was caused by sparks emitted from a locomotive travelling through a parched forest in Minnesota.  Californians are already accustomed to bans on campfires, etc. under vulnerable conditions. Will highways crossing dry grasslands be shut down next? And don't forget the fires caused by chainsaws,by gunshots and other use of firearms (a man set off a 47,000 acre wildfire in Arizona with a baby-gender-reveal shooting/explosive stunt this summer!)
At the same time, power and energy companies in California (especially) and elsewhere are speeding up their hiring of scientists, disaster-resiliency experts, and infrastructure engineers to help plan for and advise on these issues.
Poor forest management practices, climate change, spread of invasive species, and other environmental issues clearly all play a role in the growing wildfire hazard in the West.  But in my opinion, the single biggest challenge is posed by the explosive growth of something called the “WUI”- the Wildland-Urban Interface.  Simply stated, more and more persons want to live in or at the edge of the woods, and are willing to pay a premium price for land and development in such areas.  This raises the risk, much in the same way that  others are willing to pay the premium to live on or next to the beach- even if that increases their exposure to hurricanes and tsunamis.  Fire safety officials' biggest nightmares include defending WUI neighbourhoods from wildfires, and there are no easy defences for such zones.  Regulations state that brush must be cleared and trees cut down within a certain distance of dwellings and structures in the WUI, but they are often ignored, and even if the requirements are followed, recent fire history shows they often do not prevent entire towns from being engulfed in flames.  As a fellow scientist now working for an electric utility reminds me, trees and branches falling into power lines have caused many recent wildfires, and that’s why they are always trying to maintain the areas around the lines- but people don’t want their trees trimmed.  “It’s no win,” she said.  Another scientist working in land management pointed out to me that the fire risk to WUI zones can be reduced by practicing controlled burns, but doing so in an inhabited area rightly risks complaints from residents and regulators that the resulting smoke is unsightly, unhealthy (especially for those with respiratory conditions), and may constitute a violation of clean-air standards. 
Even areas that have been burned and managed are still at risk: I’ve seen reports that much of the area just burned in and around Paradise had experienced a brush-clearing fire less than a decade ago and then had been salvage-logged, as is the best practice for land management of such situations.  But the blaze spread rapidly through land covered by parched grasses, aided by strong winds, throwing embers far in front of the burning grass into Paradise, blazing across the ground and low-lying flammables (including homes, businesses, and cars)- while leaving many of the town’s tall, old pine trees alive and standing, as natural fires do there in the Sierra Nevada’s Ponderosa pine ecosystem.  It’s impossible to stop the wind, or grass from growing. 
And then, after the fire, sooner or later, will come the rain- raising the spectre of the subsequent disaster, fire-assisted floods, as pointed out in a recent article in the Sacramento Bee(2) : not only do wildfires remove ground cover which allows infiltration of water into the soil and reduces runoff, but they can “bake” the surface of the land, making it a hydrophobic barrier to flowing water, causing flash floods, often laden with debris and ash, when fire-scarred areas receive precipitation.  Those who may have been spared from the fire, and many who live far downslope or downstream from burned zones, are put at great risk from the following floods.

Here in El Paso, the Chihuahuan Desert landscape puts most of our neighbourhoods at very low risk of wildfire damage.  But other areas of Texas, including communities in the grasslands of the Panhandle around Amarillo, in wooded areas near Austin and the Hill Country, and elsewhere, are clearly vulnerable.  And many places in nearby New Mexico, especially favoured getaway sites for El Pasoans such as those around Ruidoso and Silver City, are textbook examples of wildland-urban interface fire risk.    Will there be enough lessons learned from the recent fires in California to reduce the hazard there, here in our backyard, and elsewhere?

 (1) San Jose Mercury News, Nov. 17, 2018: “Why didn’t PG&E shut down power in advance of the Camp fire?  Here’s the data.” https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/11/17/why-didnt-pge-shut-down-power-in-advance-of-deadly-camp-fire-heres-the-data/

(2) Sacramento Bee, October 25: “‘Fire-floods’ are the new threat in California disasters. Where will they strike next?”  https://www.sacbee.com/%E2%80%A6/c%E2%80%A6/big-valley/article219881260.html

Recommended Readings (non-scientific):
Egan, Timothy, 2009. The Big Burn: Teddy Roosevelt and the Fire That Saved America. (non-fiction).  Houghton Mifflin Harcourt,  ISBN 0-618-96841-5
McPhee, John, 1989.  The Control of Nature (non-fiction).  Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, ISBN 0-374-12890-1
Shepherd, Marshall, 2018. How Urbanization Makes Wildfires and Hurricanes Worse. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/11/21/how-urbanization-makes-wildfires-and-hurricanes-worse/#636fa8ac18b3
Stewart, George R., 1948.  Fire. (a novel).   Reprinted 1984 by Bison Books, ISBN 0-803-29138-8

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

A Story About Himalayan Caterpillar Fungus


Here's my story about Himalayan caterpillar fungus.

Yes, that's a thing. I had never heard about Himalayan caterpillar fungus until this afternoon. Turns out it's an interesting tale  about the global economy, global trade and climate change. I read the headline at a science news site, "Himalayan caterpillar fungus may meet its demise due to climate change." And I my immediate thought was, "that's got to be a good thing, an unexpected benefit of climate change, because Himalayan caterpillar fungus sounds like some sort of disease that could threaten an ecosystem or something."   But it's a lot more complex than that.

Apparently, due to the rapid economic growth of China, more and more Chinese people are becoming wealthy enough to afford Himalayan caterpillar fungus. Why would someone want to buy Himalayan caterpillar fungus, you ask? Apparently, it is one of the most sought after traditional medicines- it's used as a cancer treatment and for other health problems.  It has become so trendy that it's driven a caterpillar fungus boom, and in Beijing it sells for three times the price of gold.

This has in turn driven a homegrown caterpillar fungus gathering industry in the Himalayan countries, with countless people now making their living from collecting and selling caterpillar fungus. It has gotten to the point that caterpillar fungus is one of the most valuable export products of the Himalayan nation of Bhutan!

But there is a threat on the horizon: as the climate warms, caterpillar fungus is becoming more scarce, because the fungus tends to prefer areas at the edges of permafrost- which is melting and retreating up the slopes of the Himalayas, so the caterpillar fungus industry and economy is under threat from climate change. And the Bhutanese caterpillar fungus harvesters may have their livelihood threatened, and soon, just like rhino horns, the people who want it in China won't be able to get it any more.

If you happen to have some Himalayan caterpillar fungus,  probably best to not eat it or drink it as a tea, unless perhaps you get cancer. It may be the most valuable treasure you own, thanks to climate change.

And now you know the rest of the story.

This is the scientific study:
The demise of caterpillar fungus in the Himalayan region due to climate change and overharvesting

Sunday, November 4, 2018

Eulogy for a giant gone too soon: In memoriam, Eldridge Moores

The news broke early this past week, and rippled through the geology world like a great seismic tremor, that Eldridge Moores had passed away tragically and unexpectedly.  Eldridge was Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Geology at UC Davis (my alma mater), long time department chair, and for many years the editor of Geology (one of the top journals in the field) and other publications of the Geological Society of America, an organization which he had served as its President.  His research as a graduate student and young scientist had cinched the final knots in the theory of plate tectonics, one of the great scientific revolutions of the past century.  He was a true Renaissance man, humanitarian, and promoter of environmental conservation as well: his advocacy clearly helped lead to the preservation of California's new Berryessa- Snow Mountain National Monument, a beautiful landscape we both loved with a passion, and a sacred place for me. 




If it hadn’t been for the mentoring I received from Dr. Moores, I would not have followed the path of my career.  In the early 1980s, I was a UC Davis undergraduate student  majoring in something else, but didn’t have the passion for it that I did for Geology: I thought I was just dabbling in geology by enrolling in a few classes for fun and to fill out my schedule.  After taking a more advanced course from Eldridge and getting a top grade, we had a serious conversation.  In those days, I was much more seriously disabled than I am now, and got around campus in a wheelchair: the thought of a “handicapped kid” going into geology back then seemed ludicrous.  But Eldridge encouraged me to pursue the subject more deeply, indicating that the geoscience world ought to look beyond my weak and crooked limbs to my mental abilities, and he’d see to it if necessary with personal recommendations.  If it weren't for those discussions we had more than 35 years ago, I'd probably be a bored and unfulfilled engineer somewhere in Silicon Valley right now.

When UC Davis later started an interdisciplinary Earth Science and Resources graduate program (something we would now know as "earth system science"), Moores encouraged me to apply, wisely musing that the emergence the concept of looking at the Earth as an interconnected system could transform the geosciences much as plate tectonics did, and pointing out that my background in other fields along with geology in this case was not wasted time but an asset.  As usual, his counsel was spot on.  Later, he became a member of my Ph.D. comprehensive examination committee in that program. Eldridge was there to consistently give me sage advice over the decades, and I looked forward to seeing him most every year at scientific meetings and exchanging occasional emails and some social media messages.

I have several particular memories of him.
One week back about 1990 it was announced that Eldridge would give the regular Geology Department Friday lunchtime seminar, but the title/topic was strangely TBA and seemed to be a tightly guarded secret. My friends and I expected him to reveal some new insight into plate tectonics. Instead, Eldridge came out with his cello- which he took everywhere, even on many geological field trips- and played a 45 minute solo recital! I'd never seen him so obviously nervous and literally sweating copiously- but never did I see him so proud at an accomplishment. 




Another Friday he announced he would bring in a friend to discuss his latest work.  It turned out to be Pulitzer Prize-winning writer John McPhee, who gave a reading from a draft version of his travels with Eldridge in what wound up being the acclaimed book "Assembling California."  I remember us being fairly tough crowd and we gave McPhee a lot of constructive criticism, which certainly made the book better.



Eldridge truly understood that the natural world had "a beauty beyond the cold logic of the laboratory."  He was not the stereotypical just-the-data nerd of a scientist, but truly appreciated the grandeur of the Earth.  He later edited a coffee-table book of dramatic photos of geological formations, titled The Art of Geology.  As the son of a landscape painter whose art first drew me to love geology in my boyhood, I was particularly touched by this common... ground with him, though I never had the chance to tell him so. An art professor friend and I have already been planning to together teach a class on this very topic next year- jointly offered between my institution's Art and Geological Sciences departments- and I'm going to dedicate it to Eldridge.



Eldridge once told me a story of when he was on a trip somewhere.  As the plane touched ground it was the roughest landing he had ever experienced; he had decided to complain to the pilot on the way out of the aircraft- until he looked out the window and saw things moving and the airport terminal physically shaking and dislodging some bits.  He had landed at the exact moment of a major earthquake!  I like to think it was the Earth itself trembling at renewed contact with a man who unlocked the secrets of its depths.  

May his memory never be forgotten.

Sunday, October 21, 2018

Paraprosdokians


1. Where there's a will, I want to be in it.
2. Since light travels faster than sound, some people appear bright until you hear them speak.
3. If I agreed with you, we'd both be wrong.
4. Some persons never really grow up -- they only learn how to act in public.
5. War does not determine who is right, only who is left.
6. Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.
7. To steal ideas from one person is plagiarism. To steal from many is research.
8. I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.
9. In filling out an application, where it says, "In case of an emergency, notify..." I answered "a doctor."
10. You do not need a parachute to skydive. You only need a parachute to skydive twice.
11. I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure.
12. To be sure of hitting the target, shoot first and call whatever you hit the target.
13. You're never too old to learn something stupid.
14. I'm supposed to respect my elders, but it's getting harder and harder for me to find one now.

Friday, October 12, 2018

WHY?

How important does a person have to be before they are considered assassinated instead of just murdered?
Once you're in heaven, do you get stuck wearing the clothes you were buried in for eternity?
Why does a round pizza come in a square box?
What disease did cured ham actually have?
How is it that we put man on the moon before we figured out it would be a good idea to put wheels on luggage?
Why is it that people say they 'slept like a baby' when babies wake up like every two hours crying?
Why are you IN a movie, but you're ON television?
Why do people pay to go up tall buildings and then put money in binoculars to look at things on the ground?
Why do doctors leave the room while you change?
They're going to see you naked anyway.
Why do all toasters have a setting that burns the toast to a horrible crisp, which no decent human being would eat?
If Jimmy cracks corn and no one cares, why is there a stupid song about him?
Why does Goofy stand erect while Pluto remains on all fours? They're both dogs!
If corn oil is made from corn, and vegetable oil is made from vegetables, what is baby oil made from?
Why do the Alphabet song and Twinkle, Twinkle Little Star have the same tune?
Why did you just try singing the two songs above?
Did you ever notice that when you blow in a dog's face, he gets mad at you, but when you take him for a car ride, he sticks his head out the window?
Why do we press harder on a remote control when we know the batteries are getting dead?
Why do banks charge a fee on 'insufficient funds' when they know there is not enough money?
Why does someone believe you when you say there are four
billion stars, but check when you say the paint is wet?
Why do they use sterilized needles for death by lethal injection?
Why doesn't Tarzan have a beard?
Why does Superman stop bullets with his chest, but ducks when you throw a revolver at him?
Why do Kamikaze pilots wear helmets?
Why is it that no matter what color bubble bath you use the bubbles are always white?
Is there ever a day that mattresses are not on sale?
Why do people constantly return to the refrigerator with hopes that something new to eat will have materialized?
Why do people keep running over a thread a dozen times with their vacuum cleaner,
then reach down, pick it up, examine it, then put it down to give the vacuum one more chance?
Why is it that no plastic bag will open from the end on your first try?
How do those dead bugs get into those enclosed light fixtures?
Why is it that whenever you attempt to catch something that's falling off the table you always manage to knock something else over?
In winter why do we try to keep the house as warm as it was in summer when we complained about the heat?
How come you never hear father-in-law jokes?

Saturday, September 22, 2018

THINGS PEOPLE HAVE TOLD THEIR DOCTORS, AND RELATED STORIES, PART THREE

From multiple various sources:

Doctor: I had a patient tell me, "I am allergic to cats.  I am getting a cat.  Would you give me a vaccination?

Doctor: I had a patient whose complaint was "My skin is soft."

Doctor: I had a woman come in with her teenage boy.  "Doctor, something must be horribly wrong with my son.  I have looked and looked, but I can't find any porn on his computer.  What healthy fifteen year old boy doesn't have porn on his computer?"

Doctor: A patient’s son got into a verbal altercation with me over the fact that I was trying to “freeze his mother to death.” He kept pointing to the digital thermostat displaying a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius (we’re in the U.S.). When I explained to him that 23 C is not at all cold, he just kept pointing to the display & shouting, “You don’t think 23 degrees is cold?! It’s 23 F*CKING DEGREES IN HERE!” & acting insane. After multiple attempts to explain to him what Celsius is, we finally gave up & had him escorted out. He was a man in at least his late-30’s who graduated from high school and had never heard of Celsius & Fahrenheit.

Doctor: Had a lady measure her baby’s temperature by pre-heating the oven and putting one hand in front of it while the other hand was on the baby’s forehead. She told the nurse her baby’s fever was about 250 degrees.

Nurse: I handed the patient a urine specimen container and directed him to the bathroom. A few minutes later, the patient comes out of the bathroom. “Thanks,” he says, returning the empty container. “But there was a toilet in there, so I didn’t need this after all.”

Doctor: My patient announced she had good news … and bad. “The medicine for my earache worked,” she said. “What’s the bad news?” I asked. “It tasted horrible.” Since she was feeling better, I didn’t have the heart to tell her she was actually supposed to put the drops in his ear.

Nurse; I was admitting a guy to the hospital. I can't really remember what for but he was obese and was suffering from diabetes and heart disease,  I'm at the computer going over some admission questions with him and his 10 family members who are crowded in the room with him. A few minutes in he starts complaining that he's thirsty. He needs something to drink RIGHT NOW. So I get on my phone and call the nurse assistant and ask her to bring in some ice water. As soon as the words are out of my mouth the whole family screams "NOOOO! NO WATER! HE'S ALLERGIC TO WATER!"  Turns out the guy had been drinking nothing but Sprite and sweet tea for years because of his "water allergy".

A car belonging to a patient was broken into. The only thing that was stolen was a brown paper bag. It turns out, that’s where she was keeping her urine sample, which she’d brought in to be tested.

Patient: Doctor, I slipped in the grocery store and really hurt myself. 
Doctor: Where did you get hurt? 
Patient: Aisle six.

Patient: I’m sorry to have so many questions. 
Doctor: Oh, that’s no problem. You always can ask for clarification when you need it. 
Patient: Oh, thank you very much, Clara! You’ve been very helpful.

Doctor: I am a family practitioner and I had a family not want to vaccinate their newborn because they heard that vaccines were derived from monkeys brains and they didn't want their child to develop monkey like characteristics.

Patient: The day after I had surgery on my leg, a nurse came into my hospital room with a box in her hand. “Are you ready for this?” 
“What is it?” I asked. 
“Fleet enema. Didn’t your doctor tell you about it?” 
“No.” 
She rechecked the orders. “Oh, sorry! It said feet elevated!”

Dentist: A man came in with a hard object coming out of the back of his gum.  He said that at lunch a new tooth had suddenly erupted out of his mouth.  Since the patient was 23 years old and had his wisdom teeth removed years ago, I explained to him that I was skeptical.  It turned out to be a piece of a tortilla chip.

Saturday, September 8, 2018

A PLAN FOR THE IMPROVEMENT OF ENGLISH SPELLING

Attributed by many sites to Mark Twain, this actually came from a man named "Yilz" (therefore, "Shields" who wrote it as a Letter to the Editor of The Economist in 1971.

January 16, 1971

Sir,

I note with interest the two references to spelling which occur in your issue of December 26th, in particular the letter of Mr D. L. Cattley. Proposals for revision of the orthography are regularly produced, and just as regularly dismissed, but in this case it might be interesting to examine orthographical revision in some detail.

Unlike metrication, any reform in spelling should preferably take place over a long period of time in order to prevent confusion (freight=frate; eight=ate?). It should also be completely coherent, and the invention of new letters (vide the pseudo-Icelandic known as ITA) or the assumption of many diacritical marks, such as bespatter the pages of modern Slavonic texts, should, so far as possible, be avoided.

It was suggested — by, among others, G. B. Shaw — that a convenient method of revision would involve the alteration or deletion of one letter, or associated group of letters, per year, thus giving the populace time to absorb the change.

For example, in Year 1, that useless letter 'c' would be dropped to be replased by either 'k' or 's', and likewise 'x' would no longer be part of the alphabet. The only kase in which 'c' would be retained would be in the 'ch' formation, which will be dealt with later. Year 2 might well reform 'w' spelling, so that 'which' and 'one' would take the same konsonant, wile Year 3 might well abolish 'y', replasing it with 'i', and Iear 4 might fiks the 'g/j' anomali wonse and for all.

Jeneralli, then, the improvement would kontinue iear bai iear, with Iear 5 doing awai with useless double konsonants, and Iears 6-12 or so modifaiing the vowlz and the rimeining voist and unvoist konsonants. Bai Ier 15 or sou, it wud fainali be posible tu meik ius ov thi ridandant letez 'c', 'y' and 'x' — bai now jast a memori in the maindz ov ould doderez — tu riplais 'ch', 'sh' and 'th' rispektivli.

Fainali, xen, aafte sam 20 iers of orxogrefkl riform, wi wud hev a lojikl, kohirnt speling in ius xrewawt xe Ingliy-spiking werld. Haweve, sins xe Wely, xe Airiy, and xe Skots du not spik Ingliy, xei wud hev to hev a speling siutd tu xer oun lengwij. Xei kud, haweve, orlweiz lern Ingliy az a sekond lengwij at skuul! 

Iorz feixfuli, 

M. J. Yilz